Lula Betting Ban Stays After His Re-Election, With Licenses Expired and 80% Chance of Limbo
Updated on October 26, 2026.
The Lula betting ban remains in place for now. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the Oct. 25 runoff, the same day every federal and state betting license in the country expired under his ban. Analysts at Regulus Partners now give an 80% chance that the market stays stuck in a legal limbo, according to NEXT.io.
Quick summary
- The election: Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro in the Oct. 25 runoff and won a fourth term, with a lead of about 4.4 million votes, according to The Rio Times.
- The licenses: all federal and state betting licenses expired on Oct. 25 under Provisional Measure 1,394, according to NEXT.io.
- The market: 85 licensed operators have been offline since Oct. 6, according to NEXT.io.
- The forecast: Regulus Partners gives an 80% chance that the measure lapses without the licenses coming back, leaving the sector in limbo.
- Next dates: the measure gets priority status in Congress on Nov. 9, and the first deadline to vote is Nov. 23.
What happens to the Lula betting ban now?
It stays. Lula signed Provisional Measure 1,394 on Sept. 25, banning fixed-odds sports betting and online casinos, and he has said “the bets will not return,” according to NEXT.io. His re-election removes the clearest path back for the industry.
That path ran through his opponent. Flávio Bolsonaro called the measure “hypocritical, electioneering and populist,” NEXT.io reported. He also said he would look for a solution for the companies and football clubs affected by the ban, though he did not promise to revoke it.
The vote was close. In the first round on Oct. 4, Bolsonaro led with 47.03% to Lula’s 45.16%, according to iGaming Business. Lula reversed that result in the runoff, NPR and The Rio Times reported.
Regulus Partners called a Lula win “clearly much worse for Brazil’s licensed gambling industry,” but said the result brings no clarity either, NEXT.io reported. The firm expects a right-leaning Congress to stall the measure, pushing the fight into the courts while licensed sites stay dark.
What are the scenarios for Brazil’s betting market?
Regulus Partners sees four outcomes, and the most likely one, at 80%, is a long limbo. Here is how the firm rates them, as reported by NEXT.io:
Scenario | Chance |
|---|---|
Supreme Court Justice Luiz Fux strikes down the measure or suspends it until Congress acts | 5% |
Lula builds a simple majority in both chambers to approve the ban | 5% |
An amended version becomes law and restricts the licensed market, for example on influencer ads, slots and crash games | 10% |
The measure lapses without the licenses coming back, leaving the sector in limbo | 80% |
Even a win in the Supreme Court would not bring the licenses back on its own, according to Regulus. In the limbo scenario, the firm expects the outcome to be settled through what it called “protracted lawfare.” If the government wins in court, the industry could be finished, Regulus said. If the operators win, the government might have to reopen the market, possibly with new restrictions.
What happens next with the Brazil betting ban?
The next date is Nov. 9, when the measure gets priority status in Congress, and the first deadline to vote is Nov. 23. Congress can extend that deadline by 60 days. Because the count pauses during the legislative recess, the ban could stay in force until March 2027, according to NEXT.io. As of Oct. 23, the joint committee that must review the measure had not been set up, NEXT.io reported.
The courts are the other front. Justice Fux is handling three challenges to the ban and was expected to wait until after the runoff to rule, NEXT.io reported, citing UOL.
The reversal has been fast. Brazil’s licensed market opened on Jan. 1, 2025, and operators paid R$30 million each for a federal license. Less than two years later, the measure offers no refunds of those fees and no compensation to operators, according to NEXT.io. Before the first round, Regulus gave the ban only a 5% chance of becoming permanent, NEXT.io reported, and the firm still rates that outcome at 5% after the election.
The cost is already visible. Brazil’s national gaming and lottery association, ANJL, says more than 3,500 workers have been laid off and 4,167 are on collective leave. Its monitoring platform counted 30,844 illegal betting sites still active as of Oct. 12, NEXT.io reported. We covered the fight over bettors’ money in the court order to freeze refunds at seven betting sites and the industry fallout in Flutter’s job cuts and Betfair’s exit from Brazil.
What it means for players and operators
For bettors in Brazil, nothing changes after the election: licensed sites stay offline, and the licenses no longer exist. For international operators, Brazil is now a market with no clear way back in, and a lesson in how fast a licensed market can close.
For poker players everywhere, the story is a reminder that rules can change overnight. Before you deposit anywhere, check where the site is licensed, how it handles withdrawals and how fast it pays. Our guide on how to choose an online poker room covers the criteria, and our poker account security tips explain how to protect your balance. If you play from the US, Canada, the UK, Australia or Ireland, compare the rooms that accept players in your country in our list of the best online poker sites.
This article is for information only and is not legal advice.
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Frequently asked questions
Will Brazil lift the betting ban after Lula's re-election?
Not soon, based on current reporting. Lula has said "the bets will not return," and Regulus Partners gives only a 5% chance that the Supreme Federal Court strikes down or suspends the ban.
Are Brazilian betting licenses still valid?
No. All federal and state betting licenses expired on Oct. 25 under Provisional Measure 1,394, according to NEXT.io. Operators paid R$30 million for a federal license, and the measure provides no refunds of those fees.
When does Brazil's Congress have to vote on the betting ban?
The first deadline is Nov. 23, and Congress can extend it by 60 days. Because the count pauses during the legislative recess, the measure could stay in force until March 2027, according to NEXT.io.
What is the most likely outcome for Brazil's betting market?
Regulus Partners gives an 80% chance that the provisional measure lapses without a vote, with the licenses gone too. That would leave the market in limbo, with the outcome likely decided in court.
Sources
- NEXT.io: Brazil gambling in ‘limbo’ after Lula wins, says Regulus Partners
- NEXT.io: Lula or Bolsonaro? Brazil’s betting industry prepares for judgement day
- NPR: In stunning victory, Brazil’s Lula wins fourth presidential term
- The Rio Times: Brazil runoff turnout 80.8%, Lula ahead by 4.4 million
- iGaming Business: Will Brazil’s election decide the fate of regulated betting?
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